Study: MMR Japan study versus Wakefield and Stott rebuttal w contact info urls

As some of today's and recent news articles indicate, letters from parents to journalists and to researchers seem to be helping raise public awareness. This email is posted so that individuals can have urls and titles for the MMR-in-Japan study (2) and for the rebuttal by Wakefield and Stott (1). Also herein is contact information for the Japan-MMR study's lead author.
Thanks to T. Binstock.

1. Commentary: Japanese study is the strongest evidence yet for a link between MMR and autism
Andrew J Wakefield FRCS FRCPath and Carol M Stott PhD
http://www.thoughtfulhouse.org/pr-0205.htm

Honda and colleagues present a fascinating report on the cumulative incidence (numbers of new cases with time) of autistic spectrum disorders (ASDs) in the Kohoku Ward, Yokohama, Japan, for children born 1988 to 1996. The study seeks to examine the relationship between ASD and MMR vaccination. Japan is unique since MMR was introduced in 1989 and discontinued in April 1993. Honda et. al. see this as providing an ideal opportunity to test whether there is a causal association between MMR exposure and incidence of ASDs. They predict that, if MMR causes autism, stopping MMR should result in a subsequent decline in incidence. This was not seen. In fact, there was a striking rise in the incidence of ASDs in this population over time, with a marked rise postdating the removal of MMR. The authors state that their finding 'implies that MMR could not cause a substantial proportion of cases of autism'.

In conducting a study of this kind it is important to consider the background against which earlier hypotheses relating to the possible association between measles containing vaccines such as MMR, bowel disease, and childhood developmental disorders were formulated, and according to which any relevant data should be interpreted.

The above notwithstanding, the authors of the Japanese study are confident in the completeness of ascertainment of ASD cases, the accuracy and precision of their screening, and the quality of diagnostic services for developmental disorders. Given this level of confidence in the incidence figures, the data merit further scrutiny in light of Japan's unique experience with the vaccines of interest.
[rest of Wakefield, Stott rebuttal at url: http://www.thoughtfulhouse.org/pr-0205.htm]

2. No effect of MMR withdrawal on the incidence of autism: a total population study.

Hideo Honda et al.
Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry doi:
10.1111/j.1469-7610.2005.01425.x
http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/links/doi/10.1111/j.1469-7610.2005.01425.x/abs/

Hideo Honda <honda@yokohama.email.ne.jp>Yokohama Rehabilitation Center,
1770 Toriyama-cho, Kohoku-ku, Yokohama 222-0035, Japan
Tel: +81-45-473-0666; Fax: +81-45-473-0956

Background: A causal relationship between the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine and occurrence of autism spectrum disorders (ASD) has been claimed, based on an increase in ASD in the USA and the UK after introduction of the MMR vaccine. However, the possibility that this increase is coincidental has not been eliminated. The unique circumstances of a Japanese MMR vaccination program provide an opportunity for comparison of ASD incidence before and after termination of the program.

Methods: This study examined cumulative incidence of ASD up to age seven for children born from 1988 to 1996 in Kohoku Ward (population approximately 300,000), Yokohama, Japan. ASD cases included all cases of pervasive developmental disorders according to ICD-10 guidelines.

Results: The MMR vaccination rate in the city of Yokohama declined significantly in the birth cohorts of years 1988 through 1992, and not a single vaccination was administered in 1993 or thereafter. In contrast, cumulative incidence of ASD up to age seven increased significantly in the birth cohorts of years 1988 through 1996 and most notably rose dramatically beginning with the birth cohort of 1993.

Conclusions: The significance of this finding is that MMR vaccination is most unlikely to be a main cause of ASD, that it cannot explain the rise over time in the incidence of ASD, and that withdrawal of MMR in countries where it is still being used cannot be expected to lead to a reduction in the incidence of ASD.

For more information and resources on autism and vaccines go to:
http://www.autismconcepts.com/.